Lead prices fluctuate at highs, be vigilant about the risk of US tariff policy [Lead futures brief comment]

SMM, July 9, 2025

The most-traded SHFE lead 2508 contract opened at 17,260 yuan/mt today. After briefly touching a high of 17,280 yuan/mt in the early session, it fluctuated downward. The lack of significant improvement in end-use consumption of batteries dragged down the lead price gains, and it eventually closed at 17,175 yuan/mt, up 0.09%, with an open interest of 51,617 lots. Recently, the impact of US tariffs has continued to intensify, and market focus has shifted from global concerns about economic downturn to changes in specific metal tariff policies, such as the expected increase in copper tariffs, which has brought certain expectations of price increases. From a fundamental perspective, the lead-acid battery market is in the transition period between the off-season and peak season. The production and procurement enthusiasm of downstream enterprises have improved compared to June. Meanwhile, the resumption of production at lead smelters is constrained by the limited availability of raw materials, and the progress of supply increases is slower than expected. It is expected that lead prices will fluctuate at highs, while also remaining vigilant against the risks of US tariff policies.

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